Some thoughts on drilling our way out of our fossil fuel dependency

For some reason, I never actually posted the following screed. Probably because it didn't deal directly with solar. It's a bit dated now that gas has come all the way down to $3.85 or so, but the nuts-and-bolts remain the same.

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Since the amount of oil available throughout the world has increased over the last year, while demand has begun to decline (everywhere - not just in the US), the run-up in oil prices has been entirely driven by speculators doing classic pump-and-dump market manipulation. Thanks for this newest artificial crisis goes to the Repubs for deregulating the commodities market in 2005.

Even the frikin' Saudis say that there's no rational explanation for the price of oil - THEY think it's overpriced.

So drilling for a tiny quantity of oil off Florida's coast (most of what's out there is believed to be natural gas) gets us what?

If ANWR was opened up tomorrow, it would lower prices by a couple pennies in 10 years (straight from the Federal Energy Information Agency). For those who say that if we opened it when Cheney first sneered about conservation being a lifestyle choice not worthy of real Americans, we'd still be two years off from dropping gas prices from $4.12 all the way down to $4.10 a gallon. And that's assuming that "supply and demand" had ANYTHING to do with oil prices right now.

We consume 10-13 million barrels of oil a DAY in this country. Our domestic production peaked in 1974 for no other reason than we're running out of the easy to reach stuff. What remains is much harder to get out of the ground (ie way more expensive extraction and in much lighter volumes) and is often dirtier stuff requiring more processing (additional cost). In the not too distant future, domestic production will reach the point where it will take a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil. And that first barrel will be better quality stuff.

People who say that we can drill our way to energy independence remind me of those RedBull contests with the home-made flying machines - "if only I flapped my arms harder I could fly."

Oil will remain an important commodity for a long time to come, but without significant investments in efficiency and alternative energy development this country's economy will be crushed on the shoals of the oil age.

Remember, "the Stone Age did not end for lack of stones." They found a better tool and moved on.